Close elections tend to break toward the challenger because undecided voters - having held out so long against the incumbent - are by nature looking for change. ↗
Incumbent White House parties have won 10 of the last 18 presidential elections; the odds are tight, but they favor Obama in 2012. And so gloomy Democrats, check your despair; gleeful Republicans, watch the hubris. ↗
If the constitutional process is not brought to a successful conclusion before the European elections, then the whole process might run out of steam. ↗